How Yahya Sinwar’s death reshapes the war in Gaza

In the hours after the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, Benjamin Netanyahu quietly contacted Qatari and Egyptian mediators about reviving a ceasefire deal in Gaza, raising hopes of a breakthrough after a year of bloodshed.

So what? Sinwar’s death has been described by Israel, its allies and even some in Gaza as a potential turning point. Netanyahu called it “the beginning of the end”, before warning that “the war is not over yet”.

While there are reasons to suspect his sincerity, as exasperated US officials acknowledge, it is possible things could be different this time:

• In killing Sinwar, the architect of the October 7 massacre, Israel has achieved one of its primary war objectives. Netanyahu can now claim a victory, should he wish to, that looks a lot more tangible than it would have done before Sinwar’s death.
• Sinwar was a hardliner who exercised absolute authority over Hamas. His death removes one of the most significant barriers to a deal. Much depends on his successor, but whoever takes the helm is unlikely to be as extreme.
• Most outside powers from regional Muslim states to the US, EU and maybe even Iran itself are desperate not to let the opportunity slip, reviving energy around the peace process.

Taken together, there is now what Neomi Neumann of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy calls a “golden hour” to stop the fighting and start building a durable peace – if the two sides are so minded.

The prize. There is one. As Thomas Friedman reported in the NYT last week there is a plan backed by diplomats from Washington to Dubai to seize on any pretext for a pause in the fighting – such as the killing of Sinwar – to hammer out a deal that would

• end the war;
• secure the return of all the surviving hostages held in Gaza;
• start the rebuilding of the territory;
• restart long-stalled negotiations on a two-state solution; and
• open the way to the normalisation of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, building on the Abraham Accords of 2020.

The problem. Until now, both sides have made a ceasefire conditional on demands the other refused to consider. Israel insisted on the return of all surviving hostages first. Hamas refused to release them until Israel withdrew from Gaza.

Israeli officials believe that in the post-Sinwar era, Hamas leaders will be more pliant and may even agree to demands that the group’s leaders and some of its fighters go into exile.

This may be wishful thinking, yet there are reasons to believe that Israel’s hand is now stronger and that Hamas pragmatists may accept proposals Sinwar would never have contemplated.

• Hamas’s military wing has been gutted. So many battlefield commanders have been killed that fighters have gone into guerrilla mode, launching attacks without orders.
• Half of Hamas’s leadership in Gaza has also been eliminated, including three of the most senior hardliners: Mohammed Deif, Marwan Issa and Sinwar himself. Pragmatists may therefore have a numerical advantage.
• Khaled Meshaal, one of the favourites to succeed Sinwar, is firmly on the pragmatic wing. He is closer to the Arab states pushing for a ceasefire and has previously advocated breaking with Iran.
• The pragmatists will also realise that if the opportunity for a deal is passed up, Israel will redouble its military efforts. Over the weekend, Israel killed 87 people in an air strike in Beit Lahiya in northern Gaza, according to the Hamas-run health ministry – one of the highest death tolls from a single attack in months.

The potential. A ceasefire and hostage release deal would also create a slim opening for de-escalation in the wider region, leading to some kind of truce with Hezbollah and ensuring that Israel’s response to Iran’s missile strikes on 1 October does not trigger an uncontrollable spiral of vengeance.

But… Any deal with Hamas, however favourable, is likely to be challenged by Netanyahu’s hard-right coalition partners, and the next election in which he might end his dependence on them is not until 2026.

Meanwhile, a central role has been lined up for the moderate Palestinian Authority in the US-backed plan for the day the war ends. But its writ barely runs in the West Bank, let alone Gaza.

Ships in the night. Even if leaders on both sides were willing to seize this moment, followers may not be. “We are still stuck on October 7 and the Palestinians see everything from October 8,” says Neumann. “There is no area in which the two sides can share sympathy.”

What’s more… Around 60 of the 101 hostages are still thought to be alive. Netanyahu knows he must bring them home. The imperative for a deal exists, if not the appetite.