The deal could see the first hostages and prisoners being released on Sunday
Gaza was celebrating on Wednesday as US and Qatari officials announced that Israeli and Hamas negotiators had reached a ceasefire agreement. The deal includes a phased end to the war and the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners.
So what? The deal could mark the beginning of the end of one of the deadliest wars in modern history. If so…
- In Gaza, two million displaced Palestinians will have a chance to reunite with loved ones, bury their dead with dignity and return to their homes – many of which now lie in ruins.
- In Israel, hospitals will begin to receive dozens of hostages, young and old, their condition unknown.
- In the US, Donald Trump will get much of the credit even though his second presidency has not yet begun.
The human cost. After more than 15 months of devastation, many wondered whether this day would ever come. According to Gaza’s Health Ministry over 46,000 Palestinians have been killed, though recent research suggests this could be a significant undercount. Tens of thousands more have been left with life-changing injuries. 90 per cent of the population is currently displaced.
Israel’s onslaught followed the Hamas attack of October 7th, in which militants killed around 1,200 Israelis and kidnapped 250 to Gaza – 94 of whom remain in captivity. Of them at least a third are presumed to be no longer alive. Hostage families face an agonising wait to see if their loved ones will be returned home.
The agreement. The plan is for the ceasefire to unfold in three phases, starting this Sunday.
Phase 1. 33 hostages including children, women, elderly men, the wounded and the sick to be released in return for the release of 1,000 Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons. Israeli troops would begin to withdraw from the Strip, moving to a buffer zone along Gaza’s border. Humanitarian aid into Gaza would be ramped up.
Phase 2. Starting 16 days later if the conditions of the initial phase are met, hostages including male soldiers and younger civilian men would be released. In return, Israel would completely withdraw from the Strip.
Big if. The transition from the first to the second stage will be key, with a number of details still to be negotiated. Analysts warn the deal could collapse ahead of phase 2 and fighting could resume.
Phase 3. Crucially, this isn’t fully mapped out. It focuses on the reconstruction of Gaza – a process projected to take years. There is currently no consensus on who will administer Gaza in the future and many believe shelving this question was key to getting the deal done.
Terms of the agreement, hashed out in Doha by Qatari and Egyptian mediators with US backing – and without Israel and Hamas officials ever having to speak directly – have been a moving target. Wednesday’s deal was first proposed in May 2024, but months of on-off negotiations left many with little faith that there was either a will or a way to break the impasse.
- Hamas had insisted a deal must rest on full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.
- Israel had repeatedly cautioned that there would be no end to the war until Hamas was fully dismantled.
Why now? Last month, Trump said there would be “all hell to pay” if Israel and Hamas didn’t sign a deal before his return to the White House. His newly appointed Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff – a fellow real-estate mogul with no experience of diplomacy – left Doha for Jerusalem last Saturday to ratchet up pressure on Israel’s prime minister.
“Donald Trump’s pressure tactics and warnings to Hamas and Israel have clearly been effective in reviving the drawn-out negotiations where the Biden administration proved unwilling to exert adequate pressure over Israel’s leadership,” said Sanam Vakil, Director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House.
Analysts have suggested that in return for agreeing to the deal, Trump may have promised Netanyahu an even greater prize ahead, such as West Bank annexation or normalisation with Saudi Arabia.
Sour grapes. Not everyone in Israel is celebrating. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich both voted against the deal at Friday’s security cabinet meeting. Ben-Gvir is expected to leave the government imminently, and is urging Smotrich to join him in doing so. According to Israeli media, Smotrich has set out conditions for remaining in the government which include that Israel resume the war after phase one of the deal — terms that Netanyahu has reportedly agreed to.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu has reportedly received guarantees of his own from Trump that Israel could resume fighting with US backing if the negotiations break down and Hamas doesn’t adhere to Israel’s security needs.
What’s more… The outgoing US Secretary of State on Tuesday, Antony Blinken, said Hamas had recruited “almost as many new militants as it has lost”.
This article was originally published on 16 January. It was updated on 17 January.
