Marine Le Pen has a new home in the political wilderness

Marine Le Pen said at the weekend that the judge in her embezzlement case would not “dare” to block her from running for president.

So what? She was wrong. The far-right politician was a leading contender to win France’s next presidential election, but yesterday she was banned from public office for five years after being found guilty of misusing EU funds. This leaves Le Pen’s political life in tatters and has implications for:

• Her party. National Rally’s anti-corruption branding is a harder sell now Le Pen and 24 other party members have been convicted of embezzlement.
• France. Le Pen has run in the past three presidential races and was polling ten points ahead of rivals in her fourth. Voters in 2027 will have to decide whether to support her replacement, stick with a centrist, or bet on a candidate from the left.
• The world. Many liberals will celebrate the downfall of Le Pen, a Eurosceptic and Nato critic with alleged historic links to the Kremlin. But her ban may amplify US hostility towards Europe, which Vice President JD Vance says has a “threat from within”.

The verdict. In room 2.01 of Paris’s Clichy courts, Le Pen shook her head as the National Rally was found to have embezzled more than €4 million of European Parliament money over 12 years to pay party workers. The far-right leader was held personally responsible for €474,000.

The body blow. She didn’t stick around, muttering the word “incredible” and leaving the room before sentencing was complete. Le Pen was handed four years in prison – two years suspended and two served outside jail with an ankle tag – as well as a fine. But the clincher was a ban on running for office, a prospect that she previously likened to a “political death”.

Glimmer no 1. Le Pen could be saved by successfully appealing the verdict before the 2027 deadline to enter the race. The odds are not in her favour. France’s appeals process is slow and Le Pen’s party may want to adjust to new realities sooner rather than later.

Glimmer no 2. What is feasible, according to Mujtaba Rahman from the Eurasia Group, is for Le Pen to have the ban suspended pending any appeal playing out. That would involve going before France’s Constitutional Council and arguing that the sentence infringes on voters’ rights.

Dream denied. If this fails, Le Pen’s desire to occupy the Elysée will have been dashed at the very moment she stood the best chance of making it a reality. National Rally emerged as the single largest party after the 2024 parliamentary elections, and in the last two presidential races Le Pen made the final run-off against Emmanuel Macron, who cannot stand for a third term.

Outside L’Hexagone. Le Pen’s European allies, many from far-right parties, lined up to register their anger at a decision that they have cast as an attack on democracy.

• Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, wrote “Je suis Marine!” on social media.
• Italy’s deputy prime minister, Matteo Salvini, called the ruling a “declaration of war by Brussels”.
• The Kremlin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, accused European capitals of “trampling over democratic norms”.

Inside L’Hexagone. Le Parisien reported that France’s centrist prime minister, François Bayrou, was “troubled” by the ruling. The far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon said the decision to remove Le Pen “should be up to the people”. The rivals might be worrying about what will happen next.

France’s Donald Trump moment. The National Rally’s popularity held up during Le Pen’s trial, suggesting her conviction may not be an election sinker. If the party can tap into the same narrative of victimisation used by Trump after his 2023 indictment on racketeering charges, National Rally may come up smelling of roses – even without Le Pen.

Plan B. Enter Jordan Bardella, who yesterday said French democracy had been “executed” by the verdict. The telegenic National Rally president is the likeliest person to run in Le Pen’s stead. He’s popular with voters, but at 29 he has a fraction of his mentor’s experience.

What’s more… He’s also not a Le Pen. Between Marine and her father, the 50-year-old National Rally party has never entered a presidential election without a family member in the running. But perhaps French voters will welcome a new name on the ballot paper.

Photo credit: THIBAUD MORITZ/AFP via Getty Images